This work proposes a novel cross-layer link performance prediction (LPP) model and link adaptation (LA) strategy for\udsoft-decoded multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) bit-interleaved coded orthogonal frequency division\udmultiplexing (BIC-OFDM) systems employing hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) protocols. The derived LPP,\udexploiting the concept of effective signal-to-noise ratio mapping (ESM) to model system performance over\udfrequency-selective channels, does not only account for the actual channel state information at the transmitter and\udthe adoption of practical modulation and coding schemes (MCSs), but also for the effect of the HARQ mechanism\udwith bit-level combining at the receiver. Such method, named aggregated ESM, or αESM for short, exhibits an\udaccurate performance prediction combined with a closed-form solution, enabling a flexible LA strategy, that selects at\udevery protocol round the MCS maximizing the expected goodput (EGP), i.e., the number of correctly received bits per\udunit of time. The analytical expression of the EGP is derived capitalizing on the αESM and resorting to the renewal\udtheory. Simulation results carried out in realistic wireless scenarios corroborate our theoretical claims and show the\udperformance gain obtained by the proposed αESM-based LA strategy when compared with the best LA algorithms\udproposed so far for the same kind of systems.
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